Oscar Predictions 2018

With the nominations having been announced, the Oscar race has officially began. On March 4, the best and brightest of Hollywood will step onto the red carpet in all their finery and endure the relentless lights and cameras just to witness who will take home those coveted golden statues. With The Shape of Water leading the pack this year with 13 nominations, followed by Dunkirk with 8 and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri with 7, it’s sure to be a night full of deserving winners, and a few unexpected surprises. Maybe? But with only one month to go, here are my predictions for who will win in the top categories at the 90th Annual Academy Awards.

1. Best Picture

The nominees are:

• Call Me by Your Name
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Usually, a good indicator of which film takes home the ultimate prize is by looking at the other award shows and what film they gave the accolade to. But with the Golden Globes awarding both Three Billboards and Lady Bird in their respective Best Picture categories, and the PGA (Producers Guild Association) awarding The Shape of Water the top prize, it can be automatically assumed that these three are the frontrunners, and with members of both the PGA and the Oscars overlapping, it would be easy to assume that The Shape of Water has it in the bag. However, the last two winners of the PGA’s Best Picture (The Big Short and La La Land) did not take home the Oscar equivalent so it really is an open playing field. With that being said, although I loved Lady Bird with every fibre of my being, I don’t think it will take home Best Picture (coming-of-age stories very seldom do; I mean, look at Boyhood. Too soon?). But, I do think that black comedy Three Billboards and fantasy drama The Shape of Water will battle it out on the night, with World War two epic Dunkirk following them close behind.

Who I want to win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who I think will win: The Shape of Water

2. Best Director

The nominees are:

• Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
• Jordan Peele, Get Out
• Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
• Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

This is my favourite category this year because it’s a category bursting with firsts. With the exception of Paul Thomas Anderson, who has previously been nominated for his work on There Will Be Blood, every nominee in this category is experiencing their first nomination, with Gerwig and Peele also celebrating their directorial debuts for Lady Bird and Get Out, respectively. Not bad, right? So really, I don’t have a favourite to win because every one of them is thoroughly deserving of it. However, I do hope Christopher Nolan sneaks in to claim Best Director. Dunkirk was not only technically and visually stunning and a master class in flawless directing, but it would also give the Academy the opportunity to apologize for not nominating him for his work directing Inception. I mean, come on. Anyone who understands that film in the first place needs an Oscar!

Who I want to win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

Who I think will win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

3. Best Actor

The nominees are:

• Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
• Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

It may come as no surprise to anyone on this planet but… Gary Oldman’s going to win. He just is. He is going to win the Oscar for his magnificent portrayal of former Prime Minister and British icon Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, and that is fact. Not that the other nominees are underserving —the exact opposite, in fact. But Oldman is just one of those actors that is so brilliant, so extraordinary, so fantastic at every role he embodies, that it’s a wonder that he doesn’t have an Oscar already. But he will get one on March 4, and what a glorious day that will be.

Who I want to win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Who I think will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

4. Best Actress

The nominees are:

• Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep, The Post

For me, there are two frontrunners in this category and whichever one eventually takes home the title of Best Actress will be so deserving of it. First, there’s Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, who gives undoubtedly her best performance to date as the artistically inclined, 17-year-old mad batch of emotions that is Lady Bird (as she prefers to called), and then there’s Frances McDormand, who quite honestly is just unstoppable as Mildred, the grieving and vengeful mother of a murdered daughter in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Both have the capacity to win, both should win in my opinion, but I really don’t know who will. If I had to give one of them the edge, it would have to be Frances McDormand, as the Academy does tend to favour the more dramatic performances for the lead acting categories.

Who I want to win: Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Who I think will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Best Supporting Actor

The nominees are:

• Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Of the four acting categories this year, this one is proving the most difficult to place a winner. Every performance in this category is so strong and so deserving, I would not want to be an Academy member right now. But, like I said before, if in doubt, look at the other award shows for clues; and so far, Sam Rockwell has beaten the competition at both the Golden Globes and the SAGs for his role as bigoted and violent police officer Jason Dixon in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. However, despite Rockwell’s incredibly skilled performance, I feel like this may be Willem Dafoe’s year. He already has two previous nominations in this category for Platoon and Shadow of the Vampire, but his standout performance as motel manager Billy Hicks in The Florida Project may just mean third times the charm.

Who I want to win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Who I think will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

6. Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are:

• Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
• Allison Janney, I, Tonya
• Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

It really has been a year for mother-daughter relationships, with Lady Bird and I, Tonya proving that some are more difficult than others, and in the case of Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney, it has proved incredibly rewarding to difficult daughters (fictionally, of course). But it has been Janney who has been snagging the awards this year for her role as LaVona Golden, Tonya Harding’s abusive mother in I, Tonya. And despite the fantastic performance she gives like she does in everything she’s in, I found Laurie Metcalf’s role so much more compelling and her performance so much more powerful as Lady Bird’s struggling mother, Marion, in Lady Bird and I really hope the Academy recognises this, too, because I would love to see her take home the Oscar.

Who I want to win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Who I think will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

7. Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are:

• The Big Sick
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I feel like this is definitely the most diverse category this year in terms of genre. From rom-com to horror, fantasy to drama, it’s quite a wide selection and in some ways, that’s great. Just not for voters. For me, the title of ‘Original Screenplay’ doesn’t just mean ‘not based on previous works’, but it means ‘originality’, telling a story I’ve never heard before and showing me something new and exciting, so if I were to choose on that basis I would say Three Billboards would win. However, each of these films were critically praised for their screenplay so it really is anyone’s game.

Who I want to win: The Big Sick

Who I think will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

8. Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are:

• Call Me by Your Name
• The Disaster Artist
• Logan
• Molly's Game
• Mudbound

Of the four nominations that Call Me by Your Name has received, I feel like it has the best chance of winning in this category. Based on the novel by André Aciman, it chronicles the romantic relationship between Elio Perlman played by Timothée Chalamet, a 17-year-old living in Italy, and his father's American assistant, Oliver, played by Armie Hammer. Their romance is intoxicating, the dialogue is stunning and it deserves to be recognized with an Oscar. However, I would be lying if I said that I wouldn’t get any satisfaction from watching Logan take home the golden figurine, as it is first superhero film to be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Who I want to win: Call Me by Your Name

Who I think will win: Call Me by Your Name