The Date Change for 'Infinity War' Is Bigger than You Think

Robert Downey Jr. and Marvel Studios rocked the world when they announced that the third Avengers film would be pushed ahead from May 4 to April 27, meaning that fans would have to wait one less week before Earth’s mightiest heroes face off against the Mad Titan. This change in release date did not come without consequence, as the Dwayne Johnson monster flick Rampage was also pushed up a week ahead of its April 20 release date (much to the disappointment of stoners). However, there’s more to it than simply shuffling when a movie will come out, in fact, this affects the entire spring and summer blockbuster seasons.

'Deadpool' vs. 'Solo' — The 'Big' Movie of May

Now that Marvel has ventured outside their comfortable first weekend of May slot, this opens the question of which movie will take its place as the highlight of the season. The past five years since Iron Man 3 saw a non-May release taking the title of highest grossing summer film, with Wonder Woman, Finding Dory, Jurassic World, and Guardians of the Galaxy reigning supreme by the Labor Day weekends. Most notably, three of those four box office champions had release dates in June, a bigger release slot than most, since it's right around when kids get out of school, but before family vacations or summer camp.

Infinity War was dead set for the title, but now it looks like dinosaurs or Pixar may claim it for themselves. In the middle, that leaves the two other big releases of the month: Solo: A Star Wars Story, and Deadpool 2 — or The Untitled Deadpool Sequel as it's currently listed as on IMDb.

Deadpool was expected to suffer due to being sandwiched between Avengers 3 and Solo, but now that there's a little more breathing room, it's expected to do fine. My original prediction for it's opening weekend was around $110 million, with a domestic total of $237 million by the end of its run. Now that it's facing practically zero competition until after its release, the prospect of a larger opening, and a bigger tally, is building up. A grossing smaller than the original should be expected, as comedy sequels tend to perform worse than the original (although 22 Jump Street is a notable exception).

Solo comes the week after, and since they waited until the Super Bowl to release the first bit of footage, another full-length trailer should be on the way very shortly. Either that, or they will release a slew of TV spots and hope it does a good job promoting the film. They will need all the support they can get, for them to hold out this long does not bode well for the film. If you add on the firing of Christopher Miller and Phil Lord, the constant reshoots, and Alden Ehrenreich needing last minute acting lessons, there's a small cause for alarm. However, the Star Wars franchise is no stranger to the summer season, as A New Hope, Return of the Jedi, and the prequel trilogy were all released in May. The difference between then and now is that superhero movies have sort of established May as their go-to month, so a non-superhero film may cause a disturbance in the balance.

In terms of overall anticipation, the verdict seems to be in favor of Deadpool, as it pretty much hinted at a sequel in its post-credits scene, and looks to deliver on everything it promises. However, in terms of box office revenue, Solo may end up nabbing the "movie of the month" title. It's unlikely that it will make $500 million domestically like the last three films, but given that the lowest grossing prequel era movie is Attack of the Clones at $302 million ($477 million after inflation), the odds look pretty good.

The Changing Summer Landscape — Will April join the Blockbuster Season?

Infinity War is sure to break records for April, having already surpassed Black Panther as the superhero film with the most presold tickets, it broke the record within six hours of going online. The movie was already expected to do big, but now, this could shift the brackets of each box office season.

Back in June of 1975, Steven Spielberg released what has become a well-known classic about a killer shark terrorizing a beach during the 4th of July holiday, giving birth to the summer blockbuster season. The idea was simple, release a lot of action-driven spectacles with big name stars within the months of June, July, and August. However, a big change occurred in 1977, when George Lucas released Star Wars on May 25th. In the years that followed, there would be more movies with release dates in May would advertise themselves as summer blockbusters. It worked really well, as May released movies such as Return of the Jedi, Beverly Hills Cop 2, Top Gun, The Phantom Menace, Mission Impossible II, Spider-Man, Shrek, and Finding Nemo dominated the season. In recent years, the movie released in that fateful first weekend tends to have the biggest opening, such examples include Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 andCaptain America: Civil War. Although they aren't guaranteed the top spot at the end of the season, the large kickstart does help their chances.

With a tentpole movie being pushed back into the spring, and expected to run for the whole summer, that begs the question as to whether the season will get its start in April, and if the other box office seasons get pushed around. More big name movies that release in April might start advertising themselves as summer blockbusters, and if audiences buy into that ploy, the summer season could stretch out to five months. That all leads to a big shift in when movies come out.

How Studios Will See Release Dates

For the longest time, it seemed that the majority of a year’s hits came from the summer. The past couple of years (this one included) has seen a spike in box office revenue during the months of February, March, September, and December. The message is becoming increasingly clear: blockbusters are no longer restricted to a specific three or four months of the year. Just look at Beauty and the Beast, it was the highest grossing movie of the year until The Last Jedi came out. Not even the highest grossing film of the summer was able to match it.

With high profile movies now releasing throughout the year, it's entirely possible that we could be getting blockbusters every month. If so, this could drastically change the summer field. A large amount of the annual box office revenue comes from that season, and if big movies are spread out beyond that third of the month, it could cause audiences to drift away from just summer movies.

It's nice that Marvel decided to push forward the release of what is sure to be their biggest movie yet, although that decision has sent shockwaves throughout the industry. Studios are looking beyond the summer months for big name releases, and Infinity War’s change in release date is contributing to an ever-adapting landscape of blockbusters.